The effect of oil prices on foreign trade deficit in the economics of Bulgaria

Abstract

Oil takes up a significant place in global energy consumption and oil prices are notable indicators of countries’ economic performances. As a matter of course, the bigger and longerlasting the increase in oil prices, the bigger effect it has on macroeconomic variables. The present study investigates the relationship between changing oil prices and foreign trade of Bulgaria using annual data between the years 1982-2017 by means of Fourier ADF and Fourier KPSS unit root tests and Arai-Kurozumi co-integration test with a structural break. Presence of co-integration between series was concluded.

Keywords

• oil prices
• foreign trade deficit
• Bulgaria
• structural break tests
• Fourier ADF