Identification of profiles associated with conversions between the Alzheimer’s disease stages, using a machine learning approach

Abstract

Abstract Background The identification of factors involved in the conversion across the different Alzheimer’s disease (AD) stages is crucial to prevent or slow the disease progression. We aimed to assess the factors and their combination associated with the conversion across the AD stages, from mild cognitive impairment to dementia, at a mild, moderate or severe stage and to identify profiles associated with earliest/latest conversion across the AD stages. Methods In this study conducted on the real-life MEMORA cohort data collected from January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2019, three cohorts were selected depending on the baseline neurocognitive stage from a consecutive sample of patients attending a memory center, aged between 50 and 90 years old, with a diagnosis of AD during the follow-up, and with at least 2 visits at 6 months to 1 year of interval. A machine learning approach was used to assess the relationship between factors including socio-demographic characteristics, comorbidities and history of diseases, prescription of drugs, and geriatric hospitalizations, and the censored time to conversion from mild cognitive impairment to AD dementia, from the mild stage of dementia to the moderate or severe stages of AD dementia, and from the moderate stage of AD dementia to the severe stage. Profiles of earliest/latest conversion compared to median time to conversion across stages were identified. The median time to conversion was estimated with a Kaplan-Meier estimator. Results Overall, 2891 patients were included (mean age 77±9 years old, 65% women). The median time of follow-up was 28 months for mild cognitive impairment (MCI) patients, 33 months for mild AD dementia and 30 months for moderate AD dementia. Among the 1264 patients at MCI stage, 61% converted to AD dementia (median time to conversion: 25 months). Among the 1142 patients with mild AD dementia, 59% converted to moderate/severe stage (median time: 23 months) and among the 1332 patients with moderate AD dementia, 23% converted to severe stage (Q3 time to conversion: 22 months). Among the studied factors, cardiovascular comorbidities, anxiety, social isolation, osteoporosis, and hearing disorders were identified as being associated with earlier conversion across stages. Symptomatic treatment i.e. cholinesterase inhibitors for AD was associated with later conversion from mild stage of dementia to moderate/severe stages. Conclusion This study based on a machine learning approach allowed to identify potentially modifiable factors associated with conversion across AD stages for which timely interventions may be implemented to delay disease progression.

Keywords

• Alzheimer’s disease
• Machine learning
• Decision tree
• Conversion
• Mild cognitive impairment
• Dementia