Exploring the worldwide impact of COVID-19 on conflict risk under climate change
Xiaolan Xie,
Mengmeng Hao,
Fangyu Ding,
Tobias Ide,
David Helman,
Jürgen Scheffran,
Qian Wang,
Yushu Qian,
Shuai Chen,
Jiajie Wu,
Tian Ma,
Quansheng Ge,
Dong Jiang
Affiliations
Xiaolan Xie
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
Mengmeng Hao
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
Fangyu Ding
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China; Corresponding author. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.
Tobias Ide
Murdoch University, Murdoch, 6150, Perth, Australia
David Helman
Institute of Environmental Sciences, Department of Soil and Water Sciences, The Robert H. Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food & Environment, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Rehovot, 7610001, Israel; Advanced School for Environmental Studies, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
Jürgen Scheffran
Institute of Geography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, 20144, Germany
Qian Wang
Centre for Tropical Medicine, Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Oxford, United Kingdom
Yushu Qian
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
Shuai Chen
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
Jiajie Wu
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
Tian Ma
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
Quansheng Ge
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; Corresponding author.
Dong Jiang
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China; Corresponding author. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.
Objectives: Understand whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic affects the risk of different types of conflict worldwide in the context of climate change. Methodology: Based on the database of armed conflict, COVID-19, detailed climate, and non-climate data covering the period 2020–2021, we applied Structural Equation Modeling specifically to reorganize the links between climate, COVID-19, and conflict risk. Moreover, we used the Boosted Regression Tree method to simulate conflict risk under the influence of multiple factors. Findings: The transmission risk of COVID-19 seems to decrease as the temperature rises. Additionally, COVID-19 has a substantial worldwide impact on conflict risk, albeit regional and conflict risk variations exist. Moreover, when testing a one-month lagged effect, we find consistency across regions, indicating a positive influence of COVID-19 on demonstrations (protests and riots) and a negative relationship with non-state and violent conflict risk. Conclusion: COVID-19 has a complex effect on conflict risk worldwide under climate change. Implications: Laying the theoretical foundation of how COVID-19 affects conflict risk and providing some inspiration for the implementation of relevant policies.
