Changing circulations challenge the sustainability of cold water mass and associated ecosystem under climate change

Abstract

Abstract Bottom cold water mass provides abundant nutrients and cool water in summer, playing a pivotal role in the productivity of marine ecosystem and sustainable aquaculture development. Located in the most densely populated region, the Yellow Sea cold water mass (YSCWM) is a unique one influencing hundreds of millions of people living in the rim of the Yellow Sea. As anthropogenic carbon emissions continue, how the YSCWM will be altered by climate change becomes a pressing issue, but remains elusive. Using an unprecedented set of climate models with high resolution and biogeochemical components, we find that the volume of the YSCWM will shrink by 48% to 2040–2050, along with the bottom temperature warming of 0.4 ± 0.1 °C dec−1 and the dissolved oxygen concentration declining of 0.09 ± 0.04 mg (L dec)−1. The significant destruction of the YSCWM is driven by the strengthened Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC). The reduced land-sea thermal contrast is the cause of the circulation change, by weakening the East Asian winter monsoon. Due to the resultant profound habitat reduction for marine life, predicting the change of the YSCWM will have far-reaching influences on the future policy-making for sustainable development of offshore aquaculture.