Influence of Climate Change and Land-Use Alteration on Water Resources in Multan, Pakistan

Abstract

This study presents an evaluation of climate and land-use changes induced impacts on water resources of Multan City, Pakistan. Statistical Down Scaling Model (SDSM) and Geographical Information System (GIS) are used for climate change scenario and spatial analyses. Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydraulic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model is used for rainfall-runoff simulation. The investigated results show significant changes in climatological parameters, i.e., an increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation over the last 40 years, and a significant urban expansion is also observed from 2000 to 2020. The increase in temperature and urbanization has reduced the infiltration rate into the soil and increased the runoff flows. The HEC-HMS results indicate that surface runoff gradually increased over the last two decades. Consequently, the depth of the water table in the shallow aquifer has declined by about 0.3 m/year. Projected climate indices stipulate that groundwater depletion will occur in the future. Arsenic levels have exceeded the permissible limit owing to unplanned urban expansion and open dumping of industrial effluents. The results can help an efficient water resources management in Multan.

Keywords

• climate change
• land-use alteration
• water stress
• ArcGIS
• HEC-HMS