A METHOD FOR THE ESTIMATION OF TSUNAMI RISK ALONG RUSSIA’s FAR EAST

Abstract

A simplified method was developed for estimating the tsunami risk for a coast for possible events having recurrence periods of 50 and 100 years. The method is based on readily available seismic data and the calculation of magnitudes of events with specified return periods. A classical Gumbel statistical method was used to estimate magnitudes of small probability events. The tsunami numerical modeling study used the average earthquake coordinates in the Kuril-Kamchatka high- seismic area. The verification and testing of the method were carried out using events from the North, Middle and South Kuril Islands – the most tsunami-risk areas of Russia’s Far East. Also, the study used the regional Kuril-Kamchatka catalogue of earthquakes from 1900 to 2008 - which included earthquakes with magnitudes of at least M=6. The results of the study indicate that the proposed methodology provides reasonable estimates of tsunami risk.