Climate influence on compound solar and wind droughts in Australia

Abstract

Abstract Solar photovoltaic and wind power are central to Australia’s renewable energy future, implying an energy sector vulnerable to weather and climate variability. Alignment of weather systems and the influence of large-scale climate modes of variability risks widespread reductions in solar and wind resources, and could induce grid-wide impacts. We therefore systematically analyse the relationship between compound solar radiation and wind speed droughts with weather systems and climate modes of variability over multiple time scales. We find that compound solar and wind droughts occur most frequently in winter, affecting at least five significant energy-producing regions simultaneously on 10% of days. The associated weather systems vary by season and by drought type, although widespread cloud cover and anticyclonic circulation patterns are common features. Indices of major climate modes are not strong predictors of grid-wide droughts, and are typically within one standard deviation of the mean during seasons with the most widespread events. However, the spatial imprints of the teleconnections display strong regional variations, with drought frequencies varying by more than ten days per season between positive and negative phases of climate modes in some regions. The spatial variability of these teleconnection patterns suggests that droughts in one region may be offset by increased resource in another. Our work highlights the opportunity for minimising the impact of energy production variability by utilising weather and climate intelligence. Exploiting the spatial variability associated with daily weather systems and the seasonal influence of climate modes could help build a more climate-resilient renewables-dominated energy system.