Continuous warming shift greening towards browning in the Southeast and Northwest High Mountain Asia

Abstract

Abstract Remote sensing and ground vegetation observation data show that climate warming promotes global vegetation greening, and the increase in air temperature in High Mountain Asia (HMA) is more than twice the global average. Under such a drastic warming in climate, how have the vegetation dynamics in HMA changed? In this study, we use the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2015 to evaluate the latest changes in vegetation dynamics in HMA and their climate-driving mechanisms. The results show that over the past 30 years, HMA has generally followed a “warm-wet” trend, with temperatures charting a continuous rise. During 1982–1998 precipitation increased (1.16 mm yr−1), but depicted to reverse since 1998 (− 2.73 mm yr−1). Meanwhile, the NDVI in HMA increased (0.012 per decade) prior to 1998, after which the trend reversed and declined (− 0.005 per decade). The main reason for the browning of HMA vegetation is the dual effects of warming and precipitation changes. As mentioned, the increase in air temperature in HMA exceeds the global average. The increase of water vapor pressure deficit caused by global warming accelerates the loss and consumption of surface water, and also aggravates the soil water deficit. That is to say, the abnormal increase of land evapotranspiration far exceeds the precipitation, and the regional water shortage increases. Climate change is the primary factor driving these vegetation and water dynamics, with the largest proportion reaching 41.9%.