Prediction of mortality in very low birth weight neonates in Spain.

Abstract

ObjectivePredictive models for preterm infant mortality have been developed internationally, albeit not valid for all populations. This study aimed to develop and validate different mortality predictive models, using Spanish data, to be applicable to centers with similar morbidity and mortality.MethodsInfants born alive, admitted to NICU (BWResultsOut of 14953 included newborns, 2015 died; 373 (18.5%) in their first 24 hours, 1315 (65.3%) during the first month, and 327 (16.2%) thereafter, before discharge. In the development stage, mortality prediction AUC was 0.834 (95% CI: 0.822-0.846) (p30 days of life, respectively. During validation, models 1 and 2 showed moderate concordance, whilst that of model 3 was good.ConclusionUsing dynamic models to predict individual mortality can improve outcome estimations. Development of models in the prenatal period, first 24 hours, and during hospital admission, cover key stages of mortality prediction in preterm infants.