Recent Emerging Shifts in Precipitation Intensity and Frequency in the Global Tropics Observed by Satellite Precipitation Data Sets

Abstract

Abstract Climate models indicate that a warmer environment will increase low‐level moisture, potentially intensify extreme precipitation. However, its impact on different rainfall types remains unclear. Using satellite data, we examined changes in light (0‐95th percentile, ≤5.28 mm hr−1) and heavy (95‐100th percentile, >5.28 mm hr−1) precipitation in the tropics from 1998 to 2019. Our findings show a −9 ± 2% (23 ± 2%) change in heavy (light) rain intensity and a 13 ± 2% (−24 ± 1%) change in heavy (light) rain frequency. These changes link to warmer sea surface temperatures, increased atmospheric stability and water vapor, and weakened upward velocity. These insights shed light on how heavy and light precipitation patterns respond to changing climate, emphasizing the complexities within the hydrological cycle.

Keywords

• precipitation intensity
• precipitation frequency
• hydrologic cycle