Designing Bivariate Auto-Regressive Timeseries with Controlled Granger Causality

Abstract

In this manuscript, we analyze a bivariate vector auto-regressive (VAR) model in order to draw the design principle of a timeseries with a controlled statistical inter-relationship. We show how to generate bivariate timeseries with given covariance and Granger causality (or, equivalently, transfer entropy), and show the trade-off relationship between these two types of statistical interaction. In principle, covariance and Granger causality are independently controllable, but the feasible ranges of their values which allow the VAR to be proper and have a stationary distribution are constrained by each other. Thus, our analysis identifies the essential tri-lemma structure among the stability and properness of VAR, the controllability of covariance, and that of Granger causality.

Keywords

• Granger causality
• transfer entropy
• vector auto-regressive model
• Lyapunov equation