Time Series Analysis of Decadal Precipitation Pattern at Selected Cities of Southern India

Abstract

To characterize and explore the short-term climatic patterns over the last decade (Jan. 2009 to Dec. 2018), the present research has been carried out, involving time series analysis of precipitation pattern in three cities of Tamil Nadu, namely, Thanjavur, Nagapattinam, and Chennai, referring to deltaic, coastal and highly urbanized cities of Tamil Nadu, respectively. The study involves time series empirical analysis, decomposition, exponential smoothing, and various stochastic modeling. Herein, the location-specific suitable models are obtained and specific predictions are being carried out, as well.

Keywords

• time series modeling forecasting arima precipitation pattern