Nitrate in Groundwater Resources of Hormozgan Province, Southern Iran: Concentration Estimation, Distribution and Probabilistic Health Risk Assessment Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

High nitrate concentration in drinking water has the potential to cause a series of harmful effects on human health. This study aims to evaluate the health risk of nitrate in groundwater resources of Hormozgan province in four age groups, including infants, children, teenagers, and adults, based on the US EPA methodology and Monte Carlo technique to assess uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to investigate the spatial distribution of nitrate levels in the study area. The nitrate concentration ranged from 0.3 to 30 mg/L, with an average of 7.37 ± 5.61 mg/L. There was no significant difference between the average concentration of nitrate in all study areas (p > 0.05). The hazard quotient (HQ) was less than 1 for all age groups and counties, indicating a low-risk level. The HQ95 for infants and children in the Monte Carlo simulation was 1.34 and 1.22, respectively. The sensitivity analysis findings showed that the parameter with the most significant influence on the risk of toxicity in all age groups was the nitrate content. Therefore, implementing a water resources management program in the study area can reduce nitrate concentration and enhance water quality.

Keywords

• nitrate pollution
• health risk
• Monte Carlo simulation
• groundwater contamination