Nonparametric Estimation of Conditional Copula Using Smoothed Checkerboard Bernstein Sieves

Abstract

Conditional copulas are useful tools for modeling the dependence between multiple response variables that may vary with a given set of predictor variables. Conditional dependence measures such as conditional Kendall’s tau and Spearman’s rho that can be expressed as functionals of the conditional copula are often used to evaluate the strength of dependence conditioning on the covariates. In general, semiparametric estimation methods of conditional copulas rely on an assumed parametric copula family where the copula parameter is assumed to be a function of the covariates. The functional relationship can be estimated nonparametrically using different techniques, but it is required to choose an appropriate copula model from various candidate families. In this paper, by employing the empirical checkerboard Bernstein copula (ECBC) estimator, we propose a fully nonparametric approach for estimating conditional copulas, which does not require any selection of parametric copula models. Closed-form estimates of the conditional dependence measures are derived directly from the proposed ECBC-based conditional copula estimator. We provide the large-sample consistency of the proposed estimator as well as the estimates of conditional dependence measures. The finite-sample performance of the proposed estimator and comparison with semiparametric methods are investigated through simulation studies. An application to real case studies is also provided.

Keywords

• empirical checkerboard Bernstein copula (ECBC)
• conditional dependence measures
• covariates