Infectious Disease Modelling (Mar 2023)
The malaria transmission in Anhui province China
Abstract
Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum cases have opposite trends in Anhui China in the past decade. Long term and seasonal trends in the transmission rate of P. falciparum in Africa has been well studied, however that of P. vivax transmitted by Anopheles sinensis in China has not been investigated. There is a lot of work on the relationship between P. vivax cases and climatic factors in China, with sometimes contradicting results. However, how climatic factors affect transmission rate of P. vivax in China is unknown. We used Anhui province as an example to analyze the recent transmission dynamics where two types of malaria have been reported with differing etiologies.We examined breakpoints of the P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria long term dynamics in the recent decade. For locally transmitted P. vivax malaria, we analyzed the transmission rate and its seasonality using the combined human and mosquitos SIR-SI model with time-varied mosquito biting rate. We identified the effects of meteorological factors on the seasonality in transmission rate using a GAM model. For the imported P. falciparum malaria, we analyzed the potential reason for the observed increase in cases.The breakpoints of P. vivax and P. falciparum dynamics happened in a same year, 2010. The seasonality in the transmission rate of P. vivax malaria was high (42.4%) and was linearly associated with temperature and nonlinearly with rainfall. The abrupt increase in imported P. falciparum cases after the breakpoint was significantly related to the increased annual Chinese investment in Africa.Under the conditions of the existing vectors of malaria, long-term trends in climatic factors, and increasing trend in migration to/from endemic areas and imported malaria cases, we should be cautious of the possibility of the reestablishment of malaria in regions where it has been eliminated or the establishment of other vector-borne diseases.
