A practical methodology to perform global sensitivity analysis for 2D hydrodynamic computationally intensive simulations

Abstract

Sensitivity analysis is a commonly used technique in hydrological modeling for different purposes, including identifying the influential parameters and ranking them. This paper proposes a simplified sensitivity analysis approach by applying the Taguchi design and the ANOVA technique to 2D hydrodynamic flood simulations, which are computationally intensive. This approach offers an effective and practical way to rank the influencing parameters, quantify the contribution of each parameter to the variability of the outputs, and investigate the possible interaction between the input parameters. A number of 2D flood simulations have been carried out using the proposed combinations by Taguchi (L27 and L9 orthogonal arrays) to investigate the influence of four key input parameters, namely mesh size, runoff coefficient, roughness coefficient, and precipitation intensity. The results indicate that the methodology is adequate for sensitivity analysis, and that the precipitation intensity is the dominant parameter. Furthermore, the model calibration based on local variables (cross-sectional water level) can be inaccurate to simulate global variables (flooded area). HIGHLIGHTS A Taguchi–ANOVA approach can be used as an efficient sensitivity analysis method in 2D flood modeling.; Necessity of considering both local- and global-scale calibrations is shown.; The great importance of accurate estimation of precipitation intensity in flood simulation is presented.; Mesh refinement sometimes can affect the results negatively.; The significance of the input parameters can change depending on the hydrological conditions.;

Keywords

• 2d hydrodynamic flood modeling
• anova
• global sensitivity analysis
• taguchi design