Nature Communications (May 2024)

Impacts of human mobility on the citywide transmission dynamics of 18 respiratory viruses in pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic years

  • Amanda C. Perofsky,
  • Chelsea L. Hansen,
  • Roy Burstein,
  • Shanda Boyle,
  • Robin Prentice,
  • Cooper Marshall,
  • David Reinhart,
  • Ben Capodanno,
  • Melissa Truong,
  • Kristen Schwabe-Fry,
  • Kayla Kuchta,
  • Brian Pfau,
  • Zack Acker,
  • Jover Lee,
  • Thomas R. Sibley,
  • Evan McDermot,
  • Leslie Rodriguez-Salas,
  • Jeremy Stone,
  • Luis Gamboa,
  • Peter D. Han,
  • Amanda Adler,
  • Alpana Waghmare,
  • Michael L. Jackson,
  • Michael Famulare,
  • Jay Shendure,
  • Trevor Bedford,
  • Helen Y. Chu,
  • Janet A. Englund,
  • Lea M. Starita,
  • Cécile Viboud

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48528-2
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 15, no. 1
pp. 1 – 17

Abstract

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Abstract Many studies have used mobile device location data to model SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, yet relationships between mobility behavior and endemic respiratory pathogens are less understood. We studied the effects of population mobility on the transmission of 17 endemic viruses and SARS-CoV-2 in Seattle over a 4-year period, 2018-2022. Before 2020, visits to schools and daycares, within-city mixing, and visitor inflow preceded or coincided with seasonal outbreaks of endemic viruses. Pathogen circulation dropped substantially after the initiation of COVID-19 stay-at-home orders in March 2020. During this period, mobility was a positive, leading indicator of transmission of all endemic viruses and lagging and negatively correlated with SARS-CoV-2 activity. Mobility was briefly predictive of SARS-CoV-2 transmission when restrictions relaxed but associations weakened in subsequent waves. The rebound of endemic viruses was heterogeneously timed but exhibited stronger, longer-lasting relationships with mobility than SARS-CoV-2. Overall, mobility is most predictive of respiratory virus transmission during periods of dramatic behavioral change and at the beginning of epidemic waves.