Predicting the potential impacts of climate change on the endangered endemic annonaceae species in east africa
Elijah Mbandi Mkala,
Virginia Mwanzia,
Johh Nzei,
Wyclife Agumba Oluoch,
Boniface K. Ngarega,
Vincent Okello Wanga,
Milicent Akinyi Oulo,
Boniface K. Ngarega,
Fredrick Munyao,
Flory Mkangombe Kilingo,
Penninah Rono,
Emmanuel Nyongesa Waswa,
Elizabeth Syowai Mutinda,
Clintone Onyango Ochieng,
Geoffrey Mwachala,
Guang-Wan Hu,
Qing-Feng Wang,
Jacinta Kaweze Katunge,
Calmina Izabayo Victoire
Affiliations
Elijah Mbandi Mkala
CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China; Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
Virginia Mwanzia
Lukenya University, Athi River, P.O Box 90-90128, Mtito Andei, Kenya
Johh Nzei
CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China; Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
Wyclife Agumba Oluoch
Center for Development Research – ZEF, University of Bonn, Genscherallee 3, 53113, Bonn, Germany
Boniface K. Ngarega
Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China; Centre for Integrative Conservation, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Menglun, 666303, China
Vincent Okello Wanga
CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China; Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
Milicent Akinyi Oulo
CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China; Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
Boniface K. Ngarega
Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China; Centre for Integrative Conservation, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Menglun, 666303, China
Fredrick Munyao
CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China; Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
Flory Mkangombe Kilingo
UNEP-TONGJI Institute of Environmental Science and Sustainable Development (IESD), Tongji University, Siping Road 1239, Shanghai, 200092, PR China
Penninah Rono
CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China; Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
Emmanuel Nyongesa Waswa
CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China; Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
Elizabeth Syowai Mutinda
CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China; Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
Clintone Onyango Ochieng
CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China; Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
Geoffrey Mwachala
East African Herbarium, National Museums of Kenya, P. O. Box 451660-0100, Nairobi, Kenya
Guang-Wan Hu
CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China; Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China; Corresponding author. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Wuhan, 430074, China.
Qing-Feng Wang
CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China; Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
Jacinta Kaweze Katunge
CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China; Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
Calmina Izabayo Victoire
CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China; Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
Globally, endemic species and natural habitats have been significantly impacted by climate change, and further considerable impacts are predicted. Therefore, understanding how endemic species are impacted by climate change can aid in advancing the necessary conservation initiatives. The use of niche modeling is becoming a popular topic in biological conservation to forecast changes in species distributions under various climate change scenarios. This study used the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator version 1 (ACCESS-CM2) general circulation model of coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) to model the current distribution of suitable habitat for the four threatened Annonaceae species endemic to East Africa (EA), to determine the impact of climate change on their suitable habitat in the years 2050 (average for 2041–2060) and 2070 (average for 2061–2080). Two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) SSP370 and SSP585 were used to project the contraction and expansion of suitable habitats for Uvariodendron kirkii, Uvaria kirkii, Uvariodendron dzomboense and Asteranthe asterias endemic to Kenya and Tanzania in EA. The current distribution for all four species is highly influenced by precipitation, temperature, and environmental factors (population, potential evapotranspiration, and aridity index). Although the loss of the original suitable habitat is anticipated to be significant, appropriate habitat expansion and contraction are projections for all species. More than 70% and 40% of the original habitats of Uvariodendron dzombense and Uvariodendron kirkii are predicted to be destroyed by climate change, respectively. Based on our research, we suggest that areas that are expected to shrink owing to climate change be classified as important protection zones for the preservation of Annonaceae species.
