IJCM_278A: Forecasting of Dengue Cases and Deaths in India: An application of Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model

Abstract

Background: Dengue is a mosquito borne viral disease caused by Dengue virus (DENV). Nearly about half of global population is at risk now with an estimated 100-400 million infections occurring every year. South East Asia (SEA) countries are at more risk for having Dengue infections due to its temperate climate. In India also, the cases are rising every year due to change in environmental and climatic conditions. Objectives: 1. To assess the trend of Dengue in India, 2. To forecast Dengue cases and deaths in India Methodology: For this time series analysis study, data on Dengue were collected from National Health Profile 2005-2022 and NVBCDCP; and a secondary data analysis was done. Gretl software was used to develop the model and to forecast Dengue cases and deaths. Data were checked for stationarity and appropriate ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model for the available data was developed. Using the developed model, the cases and deaths are forecasted for next 3 years (2023-2025). Results: The available data showed an increasing trend of Dengue cases and deaths in India. The three years forecasted data for Dengue cases & deaths also shows an increasing trend. The predicted Dengue cases for 2025 are 278513 (95% CI; 208898-348128) and the Dengue deaths for 2025 are 308 (95% CI; 166-450). Conclusion: From the time series analysis of the data, it is clear that the public health burden of Dengue is on an increasing trend. Hence, it is recommended that the policy makers & health workers need to focus more on planning & implementing effective preventive interventions to reduce the public health burden of Dengue cases & deaths.

Keywords

• arima
• forecasting
• dengue
• cases
• deaths