Prognostic Accuracy of DSM-5 Attenuated Psychotic Symptoms in Adolescents: Prospective Real-World 5-year Cohort Study

Abstract

Introduction There is limited research in adolescent at risk for psychosis. The new criteria of Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome (APS) of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders- 5 (DSM-5) have not been validated. Objectives The aims of this study were to: 1) characterize adolescent’s profile with APS (DSM-5 APS) compared to adolescents with early onset psychosis (EOP) and with other psychiatric disorders (non-APS); 2) to estimate their long-term risk of transition to psychosis and prognostic accuracy of DSM-5 APS. Methods 243 adolescents, aged 12-17, were included (October 2012- July 2019) and dived in three sub-groups (110 DSM-5 APS, 31 EOP, 102 non-APS). All underwent a comprehensive assessment evaluating: sociodemographic characteristics, family and personal history of any DSM-5 psychiatric disorders, psychopathological assessment and level of functioning. An annual follow-up evaluation was carried out (up to 7 years) including a clinical interview to investigate DSM-5 criteria for transition to psychosis. Results DSM-5 APS adolescents had on average higher comorbid disorders (2.3) and intermediate psychopathological and functioning profile between non-APS/EOP. The cumulative risk of transition at 1,2,3, 4-5 years was 13%, 17%, 24.2%, 26.8% and 26.8% in DSM-5 APS group, 0%, 0%, 3.2%, 3.2% and 3.2% in the non-APS. The 5-year prognostic accuracy of the DSM-5 APS in adolescent was adequate (Area Under the Curve=0.77) with high sensitivity (91.3%) and suboptimal specificity (63.2%). Conclusions The DSM-5 APS diagnosis can be used to detect help-seeking adolescents at risk of psychosis and predict their long-term outcomes, leading the way to new preventive approaches. Disclosure The authors declare that they do not have a significant financial interest, consultancy or other relationship with products, manufacturer(s) of products or providers of services related to this abstrac.

Keywords

• Psychosis
• Adolescents
• Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome
• At risk of psychosis adolescents outcome