Does an overconfidence bias affect stock return, trading volume, and liquidity? Fresh insights from the G7 nations

Abstract

The article extends the empirical literature on overconfidence bias in G7 stock markets during pre- and post-COVID-19 and provides additional evidence. Using vector autoregression and impulse response functions (IRFs), we analyze the overconfidence bias for the daily data from January 2015 to December 2021. Because the pertinent coefficients are positive and highly significant for only a few lags, there is a strong contemporaneity between market volume and market return in the pre-COVID-19 period of the Canadian and Italian stock markets. The study shows compelling evidence of overconfident behavior in the Italian market during the COVID-19 crisis. Along with trading volume, market liquidity influences overconfidence bias, which tracks market return but not vice versa. For investors, decision-makers, and market regulators, the study has significant ramifications in the current market turbulence caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, overconfidence contributes to the reported extra unpredictability due to the high level of sensitive data.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• financial market, G7
• IRF
• VAR
• Dr. Chris Jones, Economics, Finance & Entrepreneurship, Aston University, Birmingham, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
• Economic Psychology