The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Hypothesis on GHG emissions: analyses for transportation industry of South Africa

Abstract

Abstract A series of energy-econometrics techniques were employed for a 5-year time span between 2016 and 2020. The tests of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis were conducted essentially to examine the significance of economic growth (GDP), energy consumption (EC), with energy intensity (EI), and on-road passenger vehicles (PV) as related to economic development on the mitigation of carbon emissions (CO2-eq) in the transportation industry of South Africa. The findings from the prevailing research imply that, with respect to South Africa’s transportation industry, CO2-eq emissions increased in the course of early phases of economic growth while it tends to decline at certain levels of economic threshold. Though the nation maintains the edge of turning points in both the industrial and circular economy. The results further indicate a nexus between GDP and EC, which consequently affect the CO2-eq emissions. The findings proffer the needs to monitor the EC from the long-run impacts alongside the short run impacts of the forecast. The per capita GDP from the short-run impacts of t-stat—(4.928) to the long run effects of t-stat—(5.033) rises, indicating its improper influence in the industry. To limit the use of fossil-based fuels, as demonstrated in the negative signal of EI for long-run impacts of a p-value (0.2835), then to the short run effects which possess a significant p-value. It also highlights the directional correlation surfacing between EC, EI and South Africa’s on-road PV. In the computation context, the series was determined to be stationary at its first differences, as evident by the R2 combined with the R2 (Adjusted) values of 0.9837 and 0.9827, respectively, for both long-run and short-run assessments. The indication of the research among others further reveals that public transportation systems of road and rail options, which have the potentials to incorporate alternative energy sources, can be the required efforts to mitigate climate change and global warming effects in the transportation industry.

Keywords

• CO2-eq emissions
• Economic growth
• Energy consumption
• Passenger vehicles
• Transportation
• Climate mitigation