A compound accumulation grey model and its prediction of new energy generation in BRICS countries

Abstract

The development of new energy sources is imminent for solving the crucial problems in resources and environment fields. Due to national resource endowment, the consumption of energy in developing countries is inevitably increasing. This paper predicts new energy electricity generation for representatives of developing countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). A new compound accumulation grey model is proposed by introducing two adjusting factors. The parameters of the model are obtained by using particle swarm optimization algorithm. The accuracy and applicability of the model are verified by four cases. The new energy electricity generation of these countries from 2023 to 2030 is predicted based on the new energy generation data from 2014 to 2022 released by British Petroleum. The results show that these countries have a certain degree of growth in new energy generation. Among them, China has the largest amount of new energy generation. By 2030, the wind power in China will reach 1560 TW-hours, solar power generation will reach 1240 TW -hours. The results of prediction can provide reference for related departments.

Keywords

• New energy generation
• BRICS countries
• Compound generating operator
• Grey model
• Time series forecasting