Asymmetric Sea Surface Salinity Response to Global Warming: “Fresh Gets Fresher but Salty Hesitates”

Abstract

Abstract Efforts to detect long‐term changes in global mean evaporation minus precipitation over the ocean remain ambiguous. Here we define an ad hoc sea surface salinity index to assess the observed and simulated intensification of the freshwater flux pattern over the global ocean and, thus, of the overall water cycle. A recent salinity reconstruction shows a long‐term amplification of the climatological patterns, thereby supporting the popular “fresh gets fresher, salty gets saltier” paradigm. Unlike in a previous study, no systematic underestimation of this amplification is found in the latest generation of global climate models. Yet, the “fresh gets fresher” paradigm is much more robust than its “salty gets saltier” counterpart and the proposed salinity index does not yet provide a strong constraint on the model‐dependent projected intensification of the global water cycle intensification along the 21st century.

Keywords

• water cycle
• ocean
• freshwater flux
• salinity contrast
• global projections
• uncertainty