ST-CRMF: Compensated Residual Matrix Factorization with Spatial-Temporal Regularization for Graph-Based Time Series Forecasting

Abstract

Despite the extensive efforts, accurate traffic time series forecasting remains challenging. By taking into account the non-linear nature of traffic in-depth, we propose a novel ST-CRMF model consisting of the Compensated Residual Matrix Factorization with Spatial-Temporal regularization for graph-based traffic time series forecasting. Our model inherits the benefits of MF and regularizer optimization and further carries out the compensatory modeling of the spatial-temporal correlations through a well-designed bi-directional residual structure. Of particular concern is that MF modeling and later residual learning share and synchronize iterative updates as equal training parameters, which considerably alleviates the error propagation problem that associates with rolling forecasting. Besides, most of the existing prediction models have neglected the difficult-to-avoid issue of missing traffic data; the ST-CRMF model can repair the possible missing value while fulfilling the forecasting tasks. After testing the effects of key parameters on model performance, the numerous experimental results confirm that our ST-CRMF model can efficiently capture the comprehensive spatial-temporal dependencies and significantly outperform those state-of-the-art models in the short-to-long terms (5-/15-/30-/60-min) traffic forecasting tasks on the open Seattle-Loop and METR-LA traffic datasets.

Keywords

• traffic time series forecasting
• matrix factorization
• residual learning
• missing value