A Visualized Nomogram for Predicting Prognosis in Elderly Patients after Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Abstract

Background: Revascularized patients still experience adverse cardiovascular events. This is particularly true for elderly patients over the age of 65, as they often have more co-morbid vascular conditions. It is important to develop a tool to assist clinicians in comprehensively assessing these patients’ prognosis. The objective of this study is to create a comprehensive visual nomogram model combining clinical and physiological assessments to predict outcomes in elderly patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Methods: This study is a retrospective investigation of patients who underwent PCI between January 2016 and December 2017. A total of 691 patients with 1461 vessels were randomly divided into a training (n = 483) and a validation set (n = 208). A multivariate Cox regression model was employed using the training set to select variables for constructing a nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was assessed through the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and calibration curves to evaluate its discrimination and predictive accuracy. To further assess the clinical usefulness, Kaplan–Meier curve analysis and landmark analysis were conducted. Results: Independent risk factors, including diabetes mellitus (DM), post-PCI quantitative flow ratio (QFR), previous myocardial infarction (MI), and previous PCI, were contained in the nomogram. The nomogram exhibited a good area under the curve (AUC) ranging from 0.742 to 0.789 in the training set, 0.783 to 0.837 in the validation set, and 0.764 to 0.786 in the entire population. Calibration curves demonstrated a well-fitted curve in all three sets. The Kaplan–Meier curves showed clear separation and the patients with higher scores in the nomogram model exhibited a higher incidence of target vessel revascularization (TVR) (7.99% vs. 1.24% for 2-year, p < 0.001 and 13.54% vs. 2.23% for 5-years, p < 0.001, respectively). Conclusions: This study has developed the visually intuitive nomogram to predict the 2-year and 5-year TVR rates for elderly patients who underwent PCI. This tool provides more accurate and comprehensive healthcare guidance for patients and their physicians.

Keywords

• nomogram
• target vessel revascularization
• percutaneous coronary intervention
• coronary artery disease
• quantitative flow ratio