Optimizing an Investment Solution in Conditions of Uncertainty and Risk as a Multicriterial Task

Abstract

The article is concerned with the methodology for optimizing investment decisions in conditions of uncertainty and risk. The subject area of the study relates, first of all, to real investment. The problem of modeling an optimal investment solution is considered to be a multicriterial task. Also, the constructive part of the publication is based on the position that the multicriteriality of objectives of investment projecting is the result, first, of the complex nature of the category of economic attractiveness (efficiency) of real investment, and secondly, of the need to take into account the risk factor, which is a vector measure, in the preparation of an investment solution. An attempt has been made to develop an instrumentarium to optimize investment decisions in a situation of uncertainty and the risk it engenders, based on the use of roll-up of the local criteria. As a result of its implementation, a model has been proposed, which has the advantage that it takes into account, to a greater extent than is the case for standardized roll-up options, the contensive and formal features of the local (detailed) criteria.

Keywords

• real investment
• uncertainty
• risk
• degree of risk
• multicriteriality
• optimality
• roll-up of criteria