Probability and Metaphysics

Abstract

In this article I explore the relationship between the concepts of probability and metaphysics. I start by presenting first Popper’s metaphysical interpretation of probability and then Suppes’ probabilistic metaphysics. Their views are examples of two rare modern attempts to explore metaphysical ramifications of probability. Whereas Popper’s approach is less analytic and does not invest any effort in analysing the concept of metaphysics itself, Suppes’ approach encompasses both of these aspects. As much as a clarification of the concept of probability employed also a clarification of the concept of metaphysics is needed. For this purpose I first give a short account of Hume’s and Kant’s positions on metaphysics as these are early instances of the impact that probabilistic inductive reasoning made on metaphysical thought with its newly acquired evidential weight. Then I conclude with Suppes’ explicated metaphysical position, indicating the main lines along which a probabilistic metaphysics could be developed.

Keywords

• probability
• metaphysics
• Karl Popper
• Patrick Suppes