Do Climate Change Matter for Agricultural Production in an era of Globalization? Empirical Insights from Pakistan

Abstract

The purpose of current research is to examine the “sunspot theory” of business cycles in the case of Pakistan in the globalization scenario. The current research uses time-series data from 1980 to 2021. To find out the impact of Climatic variation on agricultural Production, the NARDL technique is used for the estimation of results. Results confirmed that CO2 emissions and mean temperature show an asymmetric effect on Agricultural production. Variations in CO2 emissions and mean temperature pose mixed results about agricultural production both in the long-run and short-run in different globalization scenarios. Further, through discussion, it is confirmed that this decrease in agricultural production due to climatic variation has slowed down the economic activity in an economy. Based on the results, it is recommended that government must expand tree planting projects and maintain greenery at all costs. The problem is expected to worsen as the temperature rises and the population grows. Agriculture producers must be taught new and sophisticated agricultural and cultivation practices. To address the issue of water scarcity, the government of Pakistan must construct more dams and reservoirs to give farmers greater access to water. The last but not least, this research confirmed the validity of the sunspot theory in the case of Pakistan.

Keywords

• Sunspot Business Cycle, Agricultural Production, Economic Activity, CO2 Emissions, Mean Temperature