Spatiotemporal analysis of drone operations using armed conflict location and event data (ACLED): Focusing on the Russia-Ukraine war

Abstract

This study was designed to determine the characteristics and tendencies of drones, which have emerged as a key weapon system in the Russian-Ukrainian War since 2022, and their use in modern warfare. A spatiotemporal analysis was conducted on 5,491 coordinates of drone-based battles within the city with a multidimensional model. The analysis revealed extensive drone operations by both Russia and Ukraine, with Ukraine shifting to offensive actions in 2023, and distinct temporal patterns by day of the week at battle sites, as indicated by the frequency of drone-based battles. Moreover, Russia maintained the momentum of offensive drone operations, intercepting 85.1% of Ukrainian drones and achieving a 54.0% success rate in drone-based attacks, whereas Ukraine intercepted 43.3% of Russian drones, with a success rate of only 14.3%. Based on this study, the spatiotemporal analysis of drone-based combat across Ukraine enabled an examination of the operating areas, roles, and efficiency of this weapon system as well as an understanding of the impact and multifaceted characteristics associated with its deployment on the battlefield.

Keywords

• drone-based battles
• Russia-Ukrainian war
• hotspot
• multidimensional analysis
• spatiotemporal analysis