Tuning ANN Hyperparameters for Forecasting Drinking Water Demand

Abstract

The evolution of smart water grids leads to new Big Data challenges boosting the development and application of Machine Learning techniques to support efficient and sustainable drinking water management. These powerful techniques rely on hyperparameters making the models’ tuning a tricky and crucial task. We hence propose an insightful analysis of the tuning of Artificial Neural Networks for drinking water demand forecasting. This study focuses on layers and nodes’ hyperparameters fitting of different Neural Network architectures through a grid search method by varying dataset, prediction horizon and set of inputs. In particular, the architectures involved are the Feed Forward Neural Network, the Long Short Term Memory, the Simple Recurrent Neural Network and the Gated Recurrent Unit, while the prediction interval ranges from 1 h to 1 week. To avoid the problem of the Neural Networks tuning stochasticity, we propose the selection of the median model among several repetitions for each hyperparameter’s configurations. The proposed iterative tuning procedure highlights the change of the required number of layers and nodes depending on Neural Network architectures, prediction horizon and dataset. Significant trends and considerations are pointed out to support Neural Network application in drinking water prediction.

Keywords

• artificial neural networks
• drinking water consumption
• machine learning
• grid search hyperparameters
• short-term forecasting
• tuning analysis