Opportunities and challenges for evaluating precipitation estimates during GPM mission

Abstract

Data assimilation in conjunction with numerical weather prediction and a variety of hydrologic applications now depend on satellite observations of precipitation. However, providing values of precipitation is not sufficient unless they are accompanied by the associated uncertainty estimates. The main approach of quantifying satellite precipitation uncertainties generally requires establishment of reliable uncertainty estimates for the ground validation rainfall products. This paper discusses several of the relevant validation concepts evolving from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) era to the Global Precipitation Measurement mission (GPM) era in the context of determining and reducing uncertainties of ground and space-based radar rainfall estimates. From comparisons of probability distribution functions of rain rates derived from TRMM precipitation radar and co-located ground based radar data - using the new NASA TRMM radar rainfall products (version 6) - this paper provides 1) a brief review of the importance of comparing pdfs of rain rate for statistical and physical verification of space-borne radar estimates of precipitation; 2) a brief review of how well the ground validation estimates compare to the TRMM radar retrieved estimates; and 3) discussion on opportunities and challenges to determine and reduce the uncertainties in space-based and ground-based radar estimates of rain rate distributions.