Exploring Hybrid Models For Short-Term Local Weather Forecasting in IoT Environment

Abstract

This paper explores using and hybridizing simple prediction models to maximize the accuracy of local weather prediction while maintaining low computational effort and the need to process and acquire large volumes of data. A hybrid RF-LSTM model is proposed and evaluated in this research paper for the task of short-term local weather forecasting. The local weather stations are built within an acceptable radius of the measured area and are designed to provide a short period of forecasting - usually within one hour. The lack of local weather data might be problematic for an accurate short-term valuable prediction in sustainable applications like agriculture, transportation, energy management, and daily life. Weather forecasting is not trivial because of the non-linear nature of time series. Thus, traditional forecasting methods cannot predict the weather accurately. The advantage of the ARIMA model lies in forecasting the linear part, while the SVR model indicates the non-linear characteristic of the weather data. Both non-linear and linear approaches can represent the combined model. The hybrid ARIMA-SVR model strengthens the matched points of the ARIMA model and the SVR model in weather forecasting. The LSTM and random forest are both popular algorithms used for regression problems. LSTM is more suitable for tasks involving sequential data with long-term dependencies. Random Forest leverages the wisdom of crowds by combining multiple decision trees, providing robust predictions, and reducing overfitting. Hybrid Random forest-LSTM potentially leverages the robustness and feature importance of Random Forest along with the ability of LSTM to capture sequential dependencies. The comparison results show that the hybrid RF-LSTM model reduces the forecasting errors in metrics of MAE, R-squared, and RMSE. The proposed hybrid model can also capture the actual temperature trend in its prediction performance, which makes it even more relevant for many other possible decision-making steps in sustainable applications. Furthermore, this paper also proposes the design of a weather station based on a real-time edge IoT system. The RF-LSTM leverages the parallelized characteristics of each decision tree in the forest to accelerate the training process and faster inferences. Thus, the hybrid RF-LSTM model offers advantages in terms of faster execution speed and computational efficiency in both PC and Raspberry Pi boards. However, the RF-LSTM consumes the highest peak memory usage due to being a combination of two different models.

Keywords

• Machine learning
• short-term prediction
• weather forecast
• ARIMA
• SVR
• hybrid models