Linking sea level dynamic and exceptional events to large-scale atmospheric circulation variability: A case of the Seine Bay, France

Abstract

Summary: In this study, the multi-time-scale variability of the South English Channel (case of the Seine Bay, North France) sea level and its exceptional events have been investigated in relation with the global climate patterns by the use of wavelet multi-resolution decomposition techniques. The analysis has been focused on surges demodulating by an envelope approach. The low-frequency components of the interannual (2.1-yr, 4-yr, 7.8-yr) and the interdecadal (15.6-yr and 21.2-yr) time-scales, extracted from 46-years demodulated surges, have been correlated to 36 exceptional stormy events according to their intensity. Results have revealed five categories of storms function on their correlation with the interannual and the interdecadal demodulated surges: events with high energy are manifested at the full scales while moderate events are only observed at the interannual scales. The succession of storms is mainly carried by the last positive oscillations of the interannual and the interdecadal scales. A statistical downscaling approach integrating the discrete wavelet multi-resolution analysis for each time-scale has been used to investigate the connection between the local dynamic of surges and the global atmospheric circulation from SLP composites. This relation illustrates dipolar patterns of high-low pressures suggesting positive anomalies at the interdecadal scales of 15.6-yr and 21.3-yr and the interannual scales of 4-yr while negative anomalies at 7.8-yr should be related to a series of physical mechanisms linked to the North-Atlantic and ocean/atmospheric circulation oscillating at the same time-scales. The increasing storm frequency is probably related to the Gulf Stream variation and its weakening trend in the last years. Keywords: Sea level dynamic, Envelope approach, Demodulated surges, Storm events, Climate patterns