The Effects of Direct Democracy on Stock Market Risk and Returns: An Event Study from Switzerland

Abstract

The aim of this study was to determine whether referendums affect stock price risks and returns, using an event study approach. Daily end period data for the Swiss stock market index, the STOXX European market index, and the Swiss/US exchange rate running from the beginning of 2004 to June 2021, along with the EGARCH model, were applied to determine the effects on both the market’s return and volatility. The results suggest that the day after the referendum, there was little evidence of a positive effect on stock returns. However, using a longer window of three days before and after the referendum, there was evidence of a positive effect from the referendum on the market’s returns and a negative effect on its volatility. Analysing the effects of referendums on both asset returns and risks allows for a more comprehensive assessment of how they impact on the economy, with these results supporting previous studies that found a positive effect on economic returns, and also showing they can reduce risks.

Keywords

• event study
• referendum
• stock market returns
• risk
• financial