Large spread in the representation of compound long-duration dry and hot spells over Europe in CMIP5

Abstract

Long-duration, sub-seasonal dry spells in combination with high temperature extremes during summer have led to extreme impacts on society and ecosystems in the past. Such events are expected to become more frequent due to increasing temperatures as a result of anthropogenic climate change. However, there is little information on how long-duration dry and hot spells are represented in global climate models (GCMs). In this study, we evaluate 33 CMIP5 (coupled model intercomparison project 5) GCMs in their representation of long-duration dry spells and temperatures during dry spells. We define a dry spell as a consecutive number of days with a daily precipitation of less than 1 mm. CMIP5 models tend to underestimate the persistence of dry spells in northern Europe, while a large variability exists between model estimates in central and southern Europe, where models have contrasting biases. Throughout Europe, we also find a large spread between models in their representation of temperature extremes during dry spells. In central and southern Europe this spread in temperature extremes between models is related to the representation of dry spells, where models that produce longer dry spells also produce higher temperatures, and vice versa. Our results indicate that this variability in model estimates is due to model differences and not internal variability. At latitudes between 50–60∘ N, the differences in the representation of persistent dry spells are strongly related to the representation of persistent anticyclonic systems, such as atmospheric blocking and subtropical ridges. Furthermore, models simulating a higher frequency of anticyclonic systems than ERA5 also simulate temperatures in dry spells that are between 1.4, and 2.8 K warmer than models with a lower frequency in these areas. Overall, there is a large spread between CMIP5 models in their representation of long-duration dry and hot events that is due to errors in the representation of large-scale anticyclonic systems in certain parts of Europe. This information is important to consider when interpreting the plausibility of future projections from climate models and highlights the potential value that improvements in the representation of anticyclonic systems may have for the simulation of impactful hazards.