Analysis of Future Scenarios toward a Decarbonized Society in Three African Countries

Abstract

Many countries have submitted long-term strategies to meet the emission goals stated in the Paris Agreement, but few have introduced specific measures or policies to achieve those goals and there is a need to implement specific policies to build a net-zero-emission society. This research quantitatively examines whether it is possible to achieve virtually zero emissions by 2050 in South Africa, Tunisia, and Egypt. Specifically, the study examines what measures could be taken to realize zero emissions from energy sources to implement long-term emission-reduction strategies by using decarbonization scenarios coupled with an accounting-type static simulation model. The model calculates future energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for various future scenarios and analyses potential GHG emission reductions. The results show the possibility of achieving zero emissions of energy-related CO2 in South Africa, Tunisia, and Egypt in 2050, mainly by introducing renewable energy and carbon capture and storage; they also indicate that maximising the amount of renewable energy installation is the key to achieving zero emissions in all three countries. This analysis demonstrates that this relatively simple model can contribute to quantitative considerations in emissions pathways and projections when countries develop national long-term strategies.