AN AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTIVE LAG ANALYSIS OF CRIME & TOURISM IN THE WESTERN CAPE PROVINCE, SOUTH AFRICA

Abstract

The relationship between crime and tourism has not received much attention in the academic fraternity. Instead, extensive attention has been placed on the impact of tourism on economic growth, inequality, poverty and employment. To contribute to the scarce literature on crime-tourism, the researcher examined the impact of crime on tourists arrival in the Western Cape Province, South Africa. An Autoregressive Distributive Lag model was employed to examine whether crime reduces or increases the arrival of tourists in the Western Cape Province. The results show that robberies, car hijacking and unemployment minimizes the number of tourists in the province, while economic growth and prosecution per population increases the number of tourists in the province. The results further highlight that robberies, car hijacking and unemployment disequilibrium can be solved after 1 year 6 months, holding all other things constant. Based on these findings, the study recommends that the government provide more employment opportunities to prevent crime in the province.

Keywords

• tourism arrival
• crime
• autoregressive distributive lag
• western cape
• time-series