Effects of uncertainty in decision-making about system risks

Abstract

In most modern methodological approaches, risk is defined as 'effect of uncertainty on objectives'. Systemic risks outweigh the ability of any system or part of a system to control them effectively, which is inherent to modern society, its complexity and interdependence. They mark the transition from a 'risk society' to a 'crisis society', with a fundamental shift in the focus from risk assessment to decision-making and taking responsibility for decisions made in conditions of uncertainty. The paper discusses the hypothesis that there are different dimensions of uncertainty and their effects on achieving decision - making goals related to the duration, amplitude and patterns of disorders that generate uncertainty. The aim is to define and classify different management approaches in the context of modern crises and uncertainty to define the effects of uncertainty in decision-making based on systemic risks awareness. The results should enable decision-makers and policy makers to develop a culture of systemic risks that includes their anticipation, readiness and response to them.

Keywords

• uncertainty
• crisis
• decision making
• systemic risk
• covid-19