Prognostic risk factor analysis and nomogram construction for primary liver cancer in elderly patients based on SEER database

Abstract

Objective To evaluate the risk factors and construct a nomogram model for the prognosis of primary liver cancer in the elderly based on the data from the US SEER database.Methods The latest data of patients with primary liver cancer were extracted from the SEER database using SEER*STAT software, and the required variables were included. The data were screened and then divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort. A nomogram model was constructed by screening the variables through univariate and multivariate Cox analysis. The C-Index, ROC and calibration curves were used for model evaluation.Results A total of 10 824 eligible cases from 2004 to 2017 were extracted, among which, 7757 cases were included in the training cohort and 3247 in the validation cohort. The C-Index of the model was 0.747 (in the training cohort) and 0.773 (in the validation cohort). The 3-year area under the curve (AUCs) of the training and the validation cohorts were 0.760 and 0.750, and the 5-year AUCs of the two cohorts were 0.761 and 0.748. The calibration curves showed an ideal calibration of the constructed model.Conclusions The nomogram model constructed followed by Cox regression analysis showed moderate calibration and discrimination property, and can provide reference to a certain extent for furture clinical application of primary liver cancer in the elderly.