A Model for Brucellosis Disease Incorporating Age of Infection and Waning Immunity

Abstract

This paper proposes a model for brucellosis transmission. The model takes into account the age of infection and waning immunity, that is, the progressive loss of immunity after recovery. Three routes of transmissions are considered: vertical transmission, and both direct and indirect routes of horizontal transmission. According to the well-posedness results, we provide explicit formulas for the equilibria. Next, we derive the basic reproduction number R0 and prove some stability results depending on the basic reproductive number. Finally, we perform numerical simulations using model parameters estimated from biological data to confirm our theoretical results. The results of these simulations suggest that for certain values of parameters, there will be periodic outbreaks of epidemics, and the disease will not be eradicated from the population. Our results also highlight the fact that the birth rate of cattle significantly influences the dynamics of the disease. The proposed model can be of a good use in studying the effects of vaccination on the cattle population.

Keywords

• population dynamics
• brucellosis
• basic reproduction number
• stability
• waning immunity