Forecasting of economic of passenger traffic (on the example of Krasnodar region)

Abstract

The article considers methods of predicting passenger flows. The main attention of the authors focuses on the forecasting of passenger traffic that can be used as a basis for planning and determining the most effective system of action, providing the population with quality services related to transportation, and is an integral part of a complex process of development of systems of urban passenger transport. Identified and the necessity of sharing of mathematical model of forecasting of passenger flows taking into account regional features and untransformed effect. On the basis of the study the authors can conclude that the transport mobility of the population, the average distance they travel increases with the growth and development of the city and its population. In the Krasnodar territory in the last 4 years saw an increase in the needs of the residents use public transport, but in the period of 2014 by public transportation were transported 449, 9 million, which is 1.4 million less than in 2013. This suggests that it is necessary to improve the quality of public transport services urban public transport in the Krasnodar region.

Keywords

• пассажирский транспорт
• пассажиропоток
• внетранспортный эффект
• прогнозирование
• прибыль