Population-wide measures due to the COVID-19 pandemic and exposome changes in the general population of Cyprus in March–May 2020

Abstract

Abstract Non-pharmacological interventions (e.g., stay-at-home orders, school closures, physical distancing) implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic are expected to have modified routines and lifestyles, eventually impacting key exposome parameters, including, among others, physical activity, diet and cleaning habits. The objectives were to describe the exposomic profile of the general Cypriot population and compliance to the population-wide measures implemented during March–May 2020 to lower the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and to simulate the population-wide measures’ effect on social contacts and SARS-CoV-2 spread. A survey was conducted in March–May 2020 capturing different exposome parameters, e.g., individual characteristics, lifestyle/habits, time spent and contacts at home/work/elsewhere. We described the exposome parameters and their correlations. In an exposome-wide association analysis, we used the number of hours spent at home as an indicator of compliance to the measures. We generated synthetic human proximity networks, before and during the measures using the dynamic- $${\mathbb{S}}$$ S 1 model and simulated SARS-CoV-2 transmission (i.e., to identify possible places where higher transmission/number of cases could originate from) on the networks with a dynamic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model. Overall, 594 respondents were included in the analysis (mean age 45.7 years, > 50% in very good health and communicating daily with friends/family via phone/online). The median number of contacts at home and at work decreased during the measures (from 3 to 2 and from 12 to 0, respectively) and the hours spent at home increased, indicating compliance with the measures. Increased time spent at home during the measures was associated with time spent at work before the measures (β= -0.87, 95% CI [-1.21,-0.53]) as well as with being retired vs employed (β= 2.32, 95% CI [1.70, 2.93]). The temporal network analysis indicated that most cases originated at work, while the synthetic human proximity networks adequately reproduced the observed SARS-CoV-2 spread. Exposome approaches (i.e., holistic characterization of the spatiotemporal variation of multiple exposures) would aid the comprehensive description of population-wide measures’ impact and explore how behaviors and networks may shape SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Keywords

• Exposome
• Pandemic
• Modeling
• Exposures
• Measures