Assessing the utility of hybrid hydrological modeling over complex conditions of the Chitral basin, Pakistan

Abstract

Streamflow forecasting holds pivotal importance for planning and decision-making in the domain of water resources management. The Chitral basin in Pakistan is characterized by high altitude and glaciated terrain. Simulating streamflows in this type of region is challenging due to complex orography and uncertain climate data. This complexity persuaded us to explore three frameworks (soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), artificial neural network (ANN), and hybrid of SWAT–ANN (H2)) for simulating the Chitral river under two different climate datasets (observed climatology (OC) and reconciled gridded climatology (RGC)) to give all six model combinations. Model evaluation was done first by indices (Nash–Sutcliff efficiency, Kling–Gupta efficiency, coefficient of determination, percent bias, and root mean square error) based on which we further assigned scores to models reflecting their performance during calibration and validation epochs. The research revealed that ANN-RGC stood first with 53 points, followed by H2-RGC (50 points) and SWAT-RGC (45 points). Trailing behind in the fourth and fifth positions were SWAT-RGC and SWAT-OC (26 points each), respectively, while ANN-OC finished last (22 points). In addition, this study proposed a bias scaling approach for simulation biases resulting in reduction in recession and baseflow biases and specifically improved low-scoring models. Despite ANN's superiority over conventional models, it could be of limited utility in uncertain or data-scarce conditions. HIGHLIGHTS Reliable climate data hold pivotal importance in hydrological modeling.; Artificial neural networks scored the highest but were also found to be more sensitive to data quantity and quality.; The coupling harnessed the capabilities of the parent frameworks and performed well overall.; In uncertain data conditions, the soil and water assessment tool and hybrid models could be more suitable choices.; Implied linear scaling efficiently removed model biases.;

Keywords

• ann
• climate uncertainty
• era5 land
• hybrid model
• streamflow forecasting
• swat