Scenario analysis to evaluate the economic benefits of tight oil resource development in China

Abstract

Evaluating the economic benefits of tight oil resources is necessary for China to increase its tight oil production and reserves. This study systematically analyzes the uncertainties in tight oil development in China, the factors affecting the tight oil economy, and the coevolution of the economic development of tight oil resources from the technology and market perspectives. The results indicate that a positive market environment and technological progress are important for realizing the economic development of tight oil. Four potential scenarios for the development of tight oil resources in China are also identified (i.e., the current scenario, limited scenario, efficient development scenario, and inefficient development scenario), each associated with different internal rates of return (8 %, 14 %, 20 %, and 6 %, respectively).

Keywords

• Tight oil
• Economy
• Scenario analysis
• China