A PATTERN FOR ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC SITUATION BY ENTERPRISES IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT

Abstract

This article presents the results of a study that aimed to assess whether entrepreneurs have changed their patterns of assessment of the economic situation amid the unprecedented instability and uncertainty in the business environment during the last few years. An econometric analysis was carried out using qualitative indicators from the GUS business cycle survey. We distinguished two periods of analysis: relatively stable (from January 2000 to February 2020) and unstable (from March 2020 to January 2023). Our results show that, regardless of the type of indicator and subperiod of analysis, the phenomenon of inertia was the main factor influencing diagnosis indicators. In all analyzed areas of companies’ activity (general situation, financial situation, production) we noted a change in the pattern of impact of forecast indicators on diagnosis indicators; this was the result of a change in the conditions of the external environment (expectations effect).

Keywords

• business tendency survey
• manufacturing industry
• nertia phenomenon
• expectation effect
• economic instability