Scenario Building of Global Business Network

Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is designing the market future scenarios of Mahan Sepahan Steel Company. In order to design scenarios the method of Global Business Network (GBN) is used to construct scenarios. This method is based on the uncertainty and the most common scenario building in the world and efficient way to design scenarios, especially at the organizational level. According to the scenario planning stages in this method, firstly time horizon and scenarios subject were identified. Then with data collection and semi-structured interviews with experts, environmental factors affecting the market of company including trends, predetermined elements and factors of uncertainty were identified. In the next stage by structured interviews with 22 experts and managers of the company, two critical uncertainties were identified which are: "Sanctions" and "Government support". Then by using the critical uncertainties and creation scenario matrix and by referring to all of the information gathered in previous stages, four scenarios were designed: "limited market and share declining", "extensive internal market and increased competition", "extensive internal and external market", "free and fully competitive market".

Keywords

• scenario
• method of gbn
• uncertainty
• critical uncertainty
• predetermined elements
• trend