Estimated relative potential for airborne SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a day care centre

Abstract

We estimated the hourly probability of airborne severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and further the estimated number of persons at transmission risk in a day care centre by calculating the inhaled dose for airborne pathogens based on their concentration, exposure time and activity. Information about the occupancy and activity of the rooms was collected from day care centre personnel and building characteristics were obtained from the design values. The generation rate of pathogens was calculated as a product of viral load of the respiratory fluids and the emission of the exhaled airborne particles, considering the prevalence of the disease and the activity of the individuals. A well-mixed model was used in the estimation of the concentration of pathogens in the air. The Wells-Riley model was used for infection probability. The approach presented in this study was utilised in the identification of hot spots and critical events in the day care centre. Large variation in the infection probabilities and estimated number of persons at transmission risk was observed when modelling a normal day at the centre. The estimated hourly infection probabilities between the worst hour in the worst room and the best hour in the best room varied in the ratio of 100:1. Similarly, the number of persons at transmission risk between the worst and best cases varied in the ratio 1000:1. Although there are uncertainties in the input values affecting the absolute risk estimates the model proved to be useful in ranking and identifying the hot spots and events in the building and implementing effective control measures.

Keywords

• SARS-CoV-2
• Infection probability
• Modelling
• Day care centre