Assessing climate effects on wheat yield heterogeneity in the North China Plain and evolution from 1960 to 2020

Abstract

This study quantified climate effects on wheat yield heterogeneity in the North China Plain from 1960 to 2020, by integrating the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator, Optimal Parameters–based Geographical Detector model, and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition model. The factors dominating yield heterogeneity varied by growth stage. For sowing to anthesis, anthesis to maturation, and the entire growth season, minimum temperature, radiation, and vapor pressure deficit has the greatest effect on yield heterogeneity. Interannual periodic oscillations govern the long–term evolution of climate effects on yield heterogeneity from 1960 to 2020.

Keywords

• Heterogeneity
• Climate
• Wheat production
• Evolution mechanism
• North China Plain