Delineating and Analyzing Locality-Level Determinants of Cholera, Haiti

Abstract

Centre Department, Haiti, was the origin of a major cholera epidemic during 2010–2019. Although no fine-scale spatial delineation is officially available, we aimed to analyze determinants of cholera at the local level and identify priority localities in need of interventions. After estimating the likely boundaries of 1,730 localities by using Voronoi polygons, we mapped 5,322 suspected cholera cases reported during January 2015–September 2016 by locality alongside environmental and socioeconomic variables. A hierarchical clustering on principal components highlighted 2 classes with high cholera risk: localities close to rivers and unimproved water sources (standardized incidence ratio 1.71, 95% CI 1.02–2.87; p = 0.04) and urban localities with markets (standardized incidence ratio 1.69, 95% CI 1.25–2.29; p = 0.0006). Our analyses helped identify and characterize areas where efforts should be focused to reduce vulnerability to cholera and other waterborne diseases; these methods could be used in other contexts.

Keywords

• Vibrio cholerae O1
• cholera
• spatial analysis
• Haiti
• epidemiology
• communicable disease prevention and control